The proposition
If a recurrence exists, its timing should emerge from a reproducible chronology whose event criteria are fixed in advance. This page is the scaffold for that chronology.
Candidate-event workspace
Use the evidence filters to inspect the structure before dated records are admitted to the public dataset.
Measured event record
Date, uncertainty, archive, method, and geographic scope required.
Proposed cycle anchor
Cannot be promoted until its selection rule and source are documented.
Cultural memory record
Requires earliest source, date, language, transmission history, and local context.
What is established
Paleoclimate, geomagnetic, impact, volcanic, archaeological, and textual records use different dating methods and uncertainty models. Direct visual alignment can therefore exaggerate precision.
| Layer | How this page treats it |
|---|---|
| Established Evidence | Measurements, documented records, or primary texts that can be directly cited. |
| Mainstream Interpretation | The prevailing explanation is presented in its strongest fair form. |
| Alternative Hypothesis | Testable interpretations outside the prevailing account. |
| Speculation | Ideas without enough evidence for a confidence claim. |
What must be tested
Each timeline record requires an estimated date, uncertainty range, event category, primary evidence, alternative explanations, confidence rating, and a clear label for established, disputed, or speculative inclusion.
- Are dates independently derived, calibrated, and reported with uncertainty?
- Was the event selected before or after the proposed recurrence interval was chosen?
- Does the mechanism make a prediction that differs from competing models?
- What observation would count against the claim?
Counterarguments and alternatives
Broad uncertainty bands can make unrelated events appear synchronized. Researcher degrees of freedom—choosing anchors, exclusions, or rounding—can manufacture periodic-looking patterns.
A strong page should state whether alternatives are mutually exclusive, additive, or simply operating at different scales.
Source and revision status
No candidate event will be added as a dated anchor until its source and uncertainty are recorded. [TIMELINE DATASET IN PREPARATION]